Crude oil prices are exhibiting a range-bound movement in anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting and the release of FOMC minutes. The market is closely monitoring these events for cues on the future direction of crude oil prices. Despite a lackluster performance, currency markets may experience changes in response to the FOMC minutes. If the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance than anticipated, it could potentially impact the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices.
US markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, leading to a more subdued risk environment. European markets were flat to slightly lower. The focus today will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which will provide clarity on policymakers’ views on higher terminal rate forecasts. However, the minutes may be perceived as outdated given recent positive economic surprises and softer-than-expected core PCE inflation figures. The DJIA is testing the upper edge of a consolidation zone and may need to break above the 34,500 level for further catch-up performance in value stocks. Asian stocks are set for a slightly weaker open, with Chinese equities managing to stay in the green. US plans to restrict Chinese access to US cloud-computing services may impact discussions during Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Beijing this week. China’s services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) read will provide clues on the country’s consumption-led economic recovery. The recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting resulted in a hawkish pause, leading AUD/JPY to test resistance levels. USD/SGD is heading closer towards an ascending triangle apex, with key resistance levels at 1.360 and support at 1.340.
the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB) may be less likely to do so; the UK economy is performing well; and inflation in the UK is higher than in the Euro Area. Overall, it is believed that the British Pound will continue to strengthen against the Euro in the third quarter.