The price of crude oil is approaching the upper limit of the recent range ahead of Friday’s session. This is due to strong economic data from the United States, which has improved the expectations for economic activity in the largest economy worldwide.
According to the US Energy Information Agency (IEA), crude oil stockpiles decreased by 1.508 million barrels for the week ending June 30th, which was lower than the expected 983k barrels and represented a decrease of 9.603 million barrels compared to the previous week.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report earlier in the week indicated a decrease of 4.382 million barrels for the same week. This decline in reserves could suggest that the US economy is persisting and thriving amidst the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies.
The ADP National Employment Report revealed that in June, there was a notable increase in the number of non-farm private jobs, with 497k jobs being added. This figure greatly exceeded the estimated addition of 228k jobs.
In the academic context, the market will be directing its attention towards the non-farm payroll figures from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics later today. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg among economists, it is estimated that 230k jobs were gained in the previous month.
The positive news led to an increase in Treasury yields, causing the benchmark 10-year bond to trade at a level above 4% once again.
The strength in the job market increased the possibility of a more cautious Federal Reserve at their meeting on July 26th. The stock market in Wall Street ended the day with lower prices, and equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region also experienced declines.
The growth-linked currencies of Australia (AUD), Canada (CAD), and New Zealand (NZD) are facing difficulties as the week draws to a close. Additionally, spot gold is nearing a 4-month low and is currently trading around US$ 1,910.
- After US non-farm payrolls data, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking.
The full economic calendar can be viewed WTI CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTI CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTI crude oil has been experiencing range trading conditions for over two months, with its price fluctuating within the range of 66.80 to 75.06. In a broader context, since November of last year, it has been traded between the values of 63.64 and 83.53.
Taking this into consideration, resistance and support levels can be identified based on previous highs and lows. Support levels may be found at 67.03, 66.82, 66.80, 64.36, 63.64, or at the low of November 2021 which was recorded at 62.43. Conversely, resistance levels could potentially occur at 72.72, 73.28, 75.06, 76.92, and 79.18 before encountering a series of breakpoints and prior peaks within the range of 82.50 to 83.50.